Coming first depends on luck

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Who said “success and failure happen in the same way”? No I don’t know either. But it is a profound insight.
Combine it with survivor bias, and we have a formula for false expectations.
Every time somebody’s strategy succeeds, we hear all about it. (The example I just saw was “Drive down the price of complementary products” but it could be anything). When it doesnt work we don’t.
Or the Halo Effect: we listen to Gates, Buffett, Musk, Branson etc because they are successful. So we should do like they do. The fact is, they got lucky. Thousands of others (still an exceptional tiny minority) did just the same things and don’t own their own spaceships.

The world is random. It’s a crapshoot. Dont punish the failures, they may have done exactly what you did. Or been dealt a worse hand. One day the bear will eat you, one day you eat the bear. Smugness is unbecoming of anyone.

Especially I find the aura of superiority from some in high authority unbearable. The ones who understand what I’m repeating here exhibit suitable humility and gratitude for where they find themselves.

And what’s their secret? A mix of smart action and blind luck. By all means emulate them but don’t expect an infallible result. Only a few can win. Not because they’re better than everyone else, but because they’re better than many and luckier than almost everyone.