I had an Organisational Change Manager insist I had to tell him the target operating model for two years out for an IT department undergoing DevOps surgery in response to a spectacular disaster.
I told him anyone who claims to know how 500 people will be working in two years is making it up.
I get that TOM is an aspriational target not a psychic vision, but to me it is pointless speculating.
This was pre-COVID and pre-Europen-war, but even then their world was way too VUCA to see more than few months out, if that. He couldn’t get it, because his whole career was built on another paradigm. He had a handle to turn on a planning machine, and he was gonna turn it. He needed a To-Be Model so he could do an As-Is Assessment, then a Gap Analysis, then an Organisational Change Plan for two years, even though by the time he got to the plan it would already be obsolete.